November 7

How will the United States look the day after the 2012 election, November 7? 

The answer is instructive as to how we should act from now until that time.

First, absent come cataclysm, John Boehner will continue as Speaker of the House, sparing America of another Nancy Pelosi speakership.  And, the Tea Party wing of the House, although already starting to be worn down by the ways of Washington, will remain a potent force to block destructive deficit spending.  Reinforcements like Lt. Col. Dr. Brad Wenstrup will re-energize the conservative forces to gird for two more years of budget battles.

Second, it appears to be only a remote possibility that the GOP will re-take the U.S. Senate, dethroning Harry Reid.  The only hope for this occurring appears at present to be a fairly large Romney tide that rolls in a Senate Majority with him.

Finally, the President race.  The data appears to give both parties hope, indeed confidence, going into election day.  Rasmussen and Gallup give Governor Romney a significant and growing edge in the national popular vote, but most polls show President Obama leading in the majority of swing states.  There are any number of polling theories that would lead to a conclusion that Romney is likely to prevail in both the popular vote and the swing states by a significant margin to secure victory on election day.

In any event, the Senate contest and the Presidential race is unlikely to give either party the decisive victory that 1994, 2006, 2008 and 2010 provided, meaning that the results will provide no strong mandate for any specific legislative direction in Washington.  Further, the Senate is 100% assured to have numbers to assure a filibuster for whichever party is out of power. 

Certainly a Romney win and a McConnell Senate Presidency would show a palpable rejection of the democrats' wild spending over the past four years.

CONVERSELY, If President Obama wins and the democrats hold the Senate, a credible case could be made that the democrat plan to eliminate all or part of the Bush tax cuts would be propelled forward.  That, combined with the dire deficit numbers, are the most dangerous possible momentum coming from November's election results.

At this stage, only small numbers of voters are going to change their minds, and most undecideds will be breaking for Romney.  Thus, for both candidates, goosing turnout in swing states is the prime, and perhaps exclusive, election strategy.  To win the Presidency and have a chance of winning the Senate, fiscal conservatives must turn out the Ohio vote for Romney/Ryan and Mandel.

Thus, ladies and gentlemen, in a truly make-or-break situation, we must make those calls and send those e-mails.  Get your family, friends, co-workers, and fellow parishioners out to the polls, and proudly tell them of the critical importance of voting for the GOP!